HSBC’s senior UK economist Liz Martins shared her insights on the current economic climate with Cumbrian business leaders at event held in Carlisle.
The event was organised and hosted by Armstrong Watson at the firm’s Carlisle headquarters on Thursday, July 11.
The senior economist gave an overview of the current UK and global economic landscape, covering long-term trends, geopolitical events, and emerging markets. She also answered questions from invited guests, including business owners and stakeholders from across the region.
Despite the uncertain global environment marked by elections around the world and geopolitical risks, Ms Martins said she remained optimistic about the UK economy.
She said: “The UK economy is starting to pick up. We’ve had some very good GDP growth numbers this morning and we have a new government which seems to be going down well with the financial markets, so it’s quite an optimistic message at the moment. There will always be challenges, but things are looking up.
Highlighting a few key challenges, the economist added: “Inflation is still too high for the Bank of England’s liking, so as much as businesses will be looking forward to interest rates coming down, we need to see inflation come down first.”
he also pointed out the challenges the new government faces with public finance, as the national debt is nearly 100% of GDP.
“They’ve got to decide how they can deliver their programme with very limited resources. There are challenges ahead of course, and it’s certainly not a perfect economic backdrop, but at least the economy is growing again,” she added.
Recognising that businesses have gone through an enormous amount of instability in recent years due to events like COVID, Ukraine, and Brexit, she said: “The new government has identified that stability is of course good for business, it’s good for planning and for investment. I think businesses are hopeful, that if the government can deliver that, then it will be a better time.”
She also mentioned that housebuilders were welcoming Labour’s planning reforms which aim to increase housebuilding. “There are positives out there albeit some risks as well,” she said.
David Williams, founder and CEO of international leadership development organisation Impact, was among the guests in attendance. He said: “This event was well timed, with a new Labour government coming in and all the concerns about what that means for us as a business.
“I appreciated the fact that Liz looked at the global picture as well as the UK economy, because we’re a global business. It helped me to put things into context from that perspective..”
Paul Dickson, Armstrong Watson’s managing partner and CEO, said: “In an ever-changing and ever connected world, understanding economic trends is increasingly important for making informed business decisions.
“Liz provided an engaging overview of where the UK economy is and the impact of events in recent years. While there is an uncertain global backdrop it is reassuring for businesses that interest rates are likely to come down this year, inflation is falling and sentiment is picking up.”
