A Cumbrian accountant says Britain has a confidence problem – not a productivity problem.
Paul Hornby was speaking ahead of this month’s Budget.
He said the the Government’s stop-start approach to economic policy was eroding business confidence and holding the country back.
He said: “Every time business starts to believe the worst is behind it, along comes another policy shift or tax tweak to knock it back.
“Britain doesn’t have a productivity problem – it has a confidence problem, and Westminster is to blame.”
According to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales, business confidence fell sharply in the third quarter of 2025, dropping to -7.3 from -4.2 in the previous quarter.
Productivity growth remains flat too: the Office for National Statistics reports that output per hour worked is just 2.1% higher than before the pandemic and actually fell 0.2% year-on-year in early 2025.
And confidence among business leaders has hit a new low.
The Institute of Directors Economic Confidence Index plunged to -72 in July 2025, the lowest level since records began in 2016. Investment intentions collapsed to -27, while export expectations slipped into negative territory at -4.
Paul said he believed the collapse in confidence was the real anchor weighing down the economy.
He said: “Entrepreneurs are being asked to take risks in a system that feels completely unpredictable and where the rewards are ever slimmer.
“Every few months, the rules change – whether it’s tax thresholds, National Insurance or capital allowances. You can’t plan for growth when the ground keeps shifting beneath you.”
Instead of more headline-grabbing giveaways, Paul called for stability and consistency – the kind of environment where businesses can plan, invest and hire with confidence.
He added: “A stable tax regime would do more for growth than any political soundbite.Confidence drives investment, not uncertainty.
“The best thing the Chancellor could do this month is stop tinkering, set out a clear long-term path, and stick to it.”
Paul argues that small and medium-sized businesses – the backbone of the UK economy – have been treated like an ATM for too long, hit by punitive fiscal changes dressed up as reform.
He added: “The Chancellor says she wants growth, but she’s forgotten who creates it. It’s not Whitehall – it’s the business owners putting their necks on the line every day. Give them consistency, give them clarity, and you’ll get growth.”
