Confidence among businesses remained fragile at the start of 2026, despite some small shoots of recovery, according to the UK’s largest business sentiment survey.
The British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey also showed labour costs continued to be the biggest concern for businesses, followed by energy.
Going into the Iran conflict, around half (49%) of responding businesses said they expected their turnover to improve in the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, even before recent energy price shocks, 52% of businesses cited utilities as a cost pressure.
Ahead of new employment costs and legislation coming into force for businesses this month, the survey shows 73% of businesses cited labour costs as a price pressure.
The survey was carried out by the BCC Insights Unit and the UK-wide chamber network, largely before the full impact of the Middle East conflict started to be felt between February 9 and March 9. Over 4,500 businesses across the UK (91% of which are SMEs) responded online.
Businesses raised concern over the likely impact of the Iran conflict on energy costs and inflation. They also highlighted domestic cost pressures including minimum wage and employment rights legislation.
Business confidence remained fragile at the start of the year, as businesses digested the Autumn budget. 49% of responding businesses said they expected their turnover to improve in the next 12 months (compared with 46% in Q4 2025). Meanwhile, 31% said they expected no change, and 20% expected a decrease.
Retail and hospitality continue to be the sectors suffering the most. 39% of hospitality businesses expected increased turnover, while over a quarter (27%) expected a decrease. 41% of retailers expected improved turnover, while 29% expected a decrease.
Labour and energy costs continue to hit businesses
Labour costs continue to be far and away the biggest cost pressure for businesses, cited by 73% of responding businesses (the same level as Q4). In the hospitality sector 85% of businesses cite labour as cost pressure. While in transport and logistics the figure is 84%, and manufacturing 78%.
Meanwhile, even before the Iran conflict hit global energy prices, over half (52%) of businesses said utilities were a cost pressure (the same as Q4). The pressure is highest in the hospitality sector (75%) and manufacturing (60%).
Tax remains the biggest concern
Despite concern easing tax remains the biggest worry for business, cited by 54% of businesses (down from 63% in Q4). Half of businesses (50%) remain concerned about inflation.
Levels of concern about business rates rose in the first few months of the year, ahead of revaluation. 41% of responding businesses cited business rates as a concern, (the highest level since 2017) up from 34% in Q4.
Investment levels remain in negative territory
With businesses facing a raft of persistent cost pressures, investment levels in plant, machinery and equipment, are stuck in negative territory for the sixth quarter in a row. A quarter (24%) of businesses say they have cut back on investment plans, while 56% say they have remained unchanged, and just 21% of businesses increased their plans.
The issue is more marked in certain sectors. A third of hospitality businesses (33%) and retail businesses (32%) reported they’d scaled back investment plans.
Sales indicators improved slightly post-Budget
The percentage of responding businesses reporting increased domestic sales rose slightly to 32% (29% in Q4). 42% reported no change, and just over a quarter (26%) said they had seen a decrease in sales. Sectoral breakdowns show increased sales were at their lowest among transport (25%) and manufacturers (26%).
Price rise expectations remained elevated
Even before the likely inflationary impact of the Iran conflict, 49% of responding businesses said they were likely to raise prices over the coming quarter (down from 52% in Q1). 47% said their prices were likely to remain the same, and only 3% were expecting to cut prices.
Suzanne Caldwell, managing director of Cumbria Chamber of Commerce, said: “Even before the latest escalation in the Middle East, business sentiment remained fragile and stuck in a low-growth phase.
“Most SMEs continue to report no improvement in key indicators such as investment and cash flow.
“Sentiment remains largely unchanged since the 2024 Budget, which saw a permanent increase in the labour cost base for businesses.
“Businesses face a fresh wave of employer costs and burdens from this month, with increases in the National Minimum and National Living Wages and implementation of some changes to employment rights, causing further pressure and uncertainty.
“This is exacerbated significantly by the Iran conflict, which is now the major factor that could derail fragile progress. We’re already seeing early impacts, with businesses reporting rising energy and shipping costs, echoing the initial stages of previous global shocks.
“De-escalation is the only way to prevent a deeper economic crisis.
“As energy costs rise the Government should keep all options on the table to help businesses.
“Bringing forward and extending the scope of the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme would be a strong step, alongside reconsidering how renewables levies on business energy bills are paid.
“Currently this is focused on the most energy intensive sectors, and starts from 2027.
“In the longer term, breaking out of this low-momentum cycle will require delivering the industrial strategy, boosting and diversifying our exports, and the broader adoption of AI to drive productivity.”
